Markets
The chance each team wins, according to a regulated prediction market where people trade on game outcomes. New to this? Read the 2-minute guide.
How to use this
- The big number is the market's chance that the team wins. Each game adds to 100%.
- A heavy favorite tends to run the ball late and throw less, which helps its running backs and defense.
- "Heads up" means the market and Vegas disagree by 3+ points. That's worth a second look, not a sure thing.
Loading market odds…
Prediction markets 101
A two-minute guide to reading the numbers above. Tap a question.
What is a prediction market?
A marketplace where people buy and sell shares on whether something will happen, like "the Chiefs win Sunday." A "yes" share pays $1 if it happens and nothing if it doesn't.
So what does 62% mean?
A yes share trading around 62 cents means the crowd, putting real money behind opinions, thinks there's roughly a 62% chance. That's the big number on each team.
Why compare it with Vegas?
Vegas odds include a built-in margin for the house. We strip that out so the two are apples to apples. When they disagree by a few points, one crowd knows something the other doesn't, or one is simply slow to move.
Why would the market and Vegas disagree?
They're two different crowds. Vegas lines are set by bookmakers and moved by big bettors; the market price is set by whoever is trading it right now. Late injury news, weather, or simply fewer traders on one game can push them apart for a while. A gap usually closes before kickoff.
Is a bigger gap a better opportunity?
Not necessarily. Thin markets with few traders show bigger gaps that mean less. We flag gaps of 3+ points so you know where to look, never to say who's right.
Does a favorite always win?
No. A 70% favorite still loses about 3 games in 10, and in a full NFL week several favorites lose. Treat the number as odds, not a forecast.
How does this help my fantasy team?
Game script. Big favorites tend to run the ball late, which helps running backs and defenses. Underdogs are more likely to be throwing from behind, which can help their passing game.
What are the limits?
Prices come from the best buy and sell offers, so games with few traders can be noisy. Markets can also be wrong. And prediction markets aren't available in every state.
Vegas lines 101
The numbers behind the Vegas widget and game scripts on your dashboard.
Spread
How many points the favorite is expected to win by. KC -3.5 means Kansas City is favored by 3.5; the other side is +3.5. PICK 'EM uses this line.
Total (over/under)
How many combined points both teams are expected to score. A 50 total points to a shootout; 38 points to a defensive game.
Implied team total
The spread and total together tell you each team's expected points. With a 48 total and KC -4, Kansas City is expected to score about 26 and its opponent about 22. More expected points usually means more fantasy points for that offense.
Moneyline
The price to pick a team to win outright. -200 means a favorite (bet 200 to win 100); +170 means an underdog. We turn it into a win chance, with the house's margin removed, to compare with the market.
Where our lines come from
A consensus of Vegas lines, published with the NFL schedule data we already use and refreshed a few times a day. They're context for your lineup, not live betting prices.
Education only. Audible doesn't recommend trades or bets, isn't affiliated with Kalshi, and nothing on this page lets you place a trade.
Prices come from Kalshi's public market data and update every few minutes. This page is for information only: it isn't betting or investment advice, Audible isn't affiliated with Kalshi, and nothing here lets you place a trade. Market prices are the midpoint of the best buy and sell offers, scaled so each game adds to 100%. Prediction markets aren't available in every state.